THURSDAY, June 19 (HealthDay News) -- Wars around the world have
killed three times more people over the past half-century than
previously estimated, a new study suggests.
The finding supports the notion of armed conflict as a "public
health problem" whose instability leads not only to violent deaths,
but to indirect deaths from infectious disease and other causes,
experts add.
"War kills more people than we had previously thought," said
lead researcher Ziad Obermeyer, a research scientist at Brigham
& Women's Hospital, in Boston. "And that has to be taken into
account when we're looking historically, and it's important for
people and policy makers to know when they're looking at the
consequences of the war. It's important that there's an awareness
of how many people actually die."
In the study, Obermeyer's group compared data on war deaths from
eyewitnesses and the media from 13 countries over the past 50 years
with peacetime data in the United Nations World Health Surveys,
which was collected after the end of the wars.
This method avoids problems collecting data during active
combat, and also reduces counting deaths twice or exaggerating the
number, Obermeyer said.
The researchers estimate that 5.4 million people died from 1955
to 2002 as a result of wars in 13 countries. These deaths range
from 7,000 in the Democratic Republic of Congo to 3.8 million in
Vietnam.
According to Obermeyer, the estimates are three times higher
than those of previous reports. Data from this new study also
suggests that 378,000 people worldwide died a violent death in war
each year between 1985 and 1994, compared with 137,000 estimated at
the time.
The biggest differences were seen in Bangladesh, where 269,000
people died during that country's struggle for independence,
compared with previous estimates of 58,000, the report shows. In
Zimbabwe, the researchers estimate that 130,000 people have died in
times of conflict, compared with earlier estimates of 28,000.
The findings are published in the June 20 online edition of the
British Medical Journal.
According to the authors, current methods of collecting data on
those killed during war are plagued by biases that produce
inaccuracies and underestimate the number of people actually
killed. This can lead to widely varying casualty estimates. For
example, in Iraq, a report published in the medical journal
The Lancet in 2006 estimated that 650,000 Iraqi civilians had
been killed by that time since the start of the war -- a claim
disputed by the White House, whose own estimates put the death toll
at 30,000.
In their study, Obermeyer's team drew on several sources to try
to more accurately estimate the number of military and civilian
deaths from recent wars. Their estimates do not include people who
died during the war from starvation, sickness or other conditions
indirectly caused by war.
"There is a notion in political thought that the number of
deaths due to war has been declining in recent years," Obermeyer
noted. "That is attributed to a lot of different things, but among
them technological innovations like 'smart' bombs and different
strategic priorities. This idea appears to be supported by media
reports. But what we are finding is these reports are not a
reflection of reality."
Contemporary media reports of deaths are not to be fully
trusted, Obermeyer addeds. "The reason we should be skeptical of
media reports is that they are subject to political pressures and
cannot always be verified," he said. "These numbers can be pushed
up or down, depending upon what kind of political pressure is being
exerted."
Richard Garfield, a professor of clinical international nursing
at Columbia University in New York City and the author of an
accompanying editorial in the journal, said that even this method
underestimates the number of people killed in wars.
"Even though the data on war deaths is not very good, it is much
better . . . in poor developing countries -- where virtually all
wars now are -- than it was 10 or 20 years ago," Garfield said.
However, all deaths because of war are not being counted,
Garfield said, since even Obermeyer's team left out the more
indirect deaths from starvation, infectious disease and other
illnesses, and forms of injury not directly linked to armed
combat.
"We are counting more of the violent deaths, but we only
irregularly address indirect deaths, which may be far greater than
combatant deaths," he added.
More information
The
Iraq Coalition
Casualty Count offers their tally of lives lost in the current
Iraq conflict on their Web site.